Cost of Living vs. the Dollar: Is a Crisis Coming? What the Data Says

(Headline deliberately does not say a crisis is here.)

• CPI-U, all items (SA): Sept 2026: +3.7% y/y (336.298 vs 324.245). Source: FRED CPIAUCSL
• Food at home (CPI): Sept 2026: +1.8% y/y. Source: FRED CUSR0000SAF11
• Avg hourly earnings, private: Sept 2026: $37.81, +3.0% y/y nominal (year earlier: $36.70). Source: FRED CES0500000003
• Real wage (computed): ≈ −0.7% y/y (3.0% pay vs 3.7% CPI). Source: our calculation from BLS series
• Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (NSA): Jul 2026: 337.3, +1.9% y/y (year earlier: 330.9). Source: FRED CSUSHPINSA
• Median new-home sale price (Census): Q2 2026: $410,700 (year earlier: $416,100). Source: FRED MSPUS
• Median household income (Census, 2025): $87,460 → price-to-income ≈ 4.7× (year earlier: 2024: $83,160). Source: FRED MEHOINUSA646N
• 30-yr mortgage (Freddie Mac PMMS): Oct 15, 2026: 7.40% (year earlier: Oct 16, 2025: 6.27%). Source: FRED MORTGAGE30US
• FL homeowners insurance (OIR avg incl. wind): $3,757 statewide; Martin County $5,899 (data as of Mar 31, 2026) (year earlier: Citizens multiperil rates −8.8% for 2026). Source: OIR via report, Citizens
• Household debt (NY Fed): Q2 2026: $18.77T; credit cards $1.263T (year earlier: +$383B y/y). Source: NY Fed, Aug 11, 2026
• Card delinquency: Bank rate 2.85% (Q2 2026, Fed); NY Fed flow into serious delinquency 6.97% (year earlier: 3.04% / 6.93%). Source: FRED DRCCLACBS, NY Fed
• Federal debt: Q2 2026: $39.46T (year earlier: $36.21T (+9.0%)). Source: FRED GFDEBTN
• Unemployment: Sept 2026: 4.2% (year earlier: 4.4%). Source: FRED UNRATE

Warning signs, sourced: prices are rising faster than pay, so real wages are slightly negative. Mortgage rates are up more than a full point in a year. Federal debt grew 9% in a year. The NY Fed's Joelle Scally: "new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain at elevated levels." Counterpoints, sourced: overall delinquency improved slightly, to 4.7% (NY Fed). The NY Fed says delinquency rates "across most products have held steady over the past two years." Unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.2%. Grocery inflation is 1.8%, well below overall CPI. Florida insurance averages are falling in 51 of 67 counties (OIR). Bottom line: the data shows real strain on housing affordability and household budgets. Economists are not unanimous in calling a crisis. Information only, not financial advice.

Sources

Sources were read Oct 18–20, 2026. Details may have changed since.

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
• https://www.greeneinsurance.com/data/oir-county-averages/2026-07-01/oir-stability-report.pdf
• https://www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/39683240/Revised%2B2026%2BRate%2BKit.pdf/a4a0d261-807d-eb09-50fa-c1e0759ef9b5
• https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260811
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE